Evaluation of Future Simulations of the CMIP5 GCMs Concerning Boreal Wintertime Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns

In this study, a pattern detection method is applied on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulation outputs of seven GCMs—disseminated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)—to determine whether atmospheric teleconnection patterns detected in ERA-20C reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) will be observable future projections CMIP5 GCMs. The technique—which combines negative extrema receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis—is used geopotential height field at 500 hPa pressure level wintertime, Northern Hemisphere. It was found that teleconnections obtained dataset period 1976–2005 remain majority GCM under scenarios periods 2006–2035, 2021–2050, 2071–2100. results imply internal variability major factor controls rather than impact radiative forcing.